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Federal weather watchers are out with their forecast for this year's hurricane season. NPR's Rebecca Hersher reports.
REBECCA HERSHER, BYLINE: At first glance, this year's hurricane forecast for the Atlantic seems like good news. The average number of storms in a given year is 14, and forecasters say it's likely there will be fewer than that. Neil Jacobs leads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA.
NEIL JACOBS: NOAA is predicting a below-normal season for 2026.
HERSHER: Three to six of the storms that form are expected to be full-blown hurricanes as opposed to weaker tropical storms. And between one and three of those are forecast to be major hurricanes, which have winds powerful enough to down trees and power poles, remove shingles from roofs and destroy some mobile homes. Now, all of those numbers are slightly below average. But the forecast shouldn't make anyone feel particularly safe, says Jacobs.
JACOBS: It's very important to understand that it only takes one. We have had Category 5s make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.
HERSHER: There's also an element of luck. Last year, the contiguous U.S. got lucky. No hurricanes made landfall, even as some of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded formed in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The overall number of hurricanes varies year to year. And this year, there's a cyclic weather phenomenon that will make it more difficult for storms to form, forecasters say.
JACOBS: What's driving this forecast is largely an El Nino event.
HERSHER: El Nino generally results in wind patterns that disrupt storms before they can get big and powerful, at least in the Atlantic. El Nino is expected to take hold later this summer just as peak hurricane season arrives in the Atlantic. The hurricane season there runs from June 1 through November 30. The most powerful storms generally arrive in the late summer and early fall. But the Pacific is a different story when it comes to El Nino, which will bring abnormally warm water to parts of that ocean with no disruptive wind patterns to get in the way.
JACOBS: In the Central and Eastern Pacific, we're expecting a 70% chance of above-normal activity.
HERSHER: Anyone who lives in a hurricane-prone part of the country should start preparing, emergency experts warn. The Federal Emergency Management Agency - FEMA - recommends having a plan for evacuating, including for elderly or disabled neighbors and loved ones who may need assistance.
Rebecca Hersher, NPR News.
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