SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The federal government is likely headed toward a shutdown. Democrats in Congress are withholding support for a short-term spending bill over demands to protect federal health care coverage. They want to extend health care subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year and reverse GOP-led cuts to programs like Medicaid. President Trump and Republican lawmakers are not budging, and the White House is threatening to fire government employees if a shutdown takes place.
Our next guest is no stranger to a shutdown fight. Newt Gingrich was speaker of the House when Republicans shut down the government twice during the Clinton administration in the mid-'90s. And he recently wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled "There's Only One Way To Win A Shutdown. Democrats Don't Have What It Takes." Speaker Gingrich, welcome back to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
NEWT GINGRICH: I'm glad to be with you.
DETROW: So in your op-ed, you argue Democrats would regret this shutdown. Why is that?
GINGRICH: Well, at America's (ph) Renewal Project, which we run, which has been - does polling, it's very clear that there are two things that seemingly are in contradiction. The one is that the American people do not want an increase in spending by an overwhelming majority. The other is that they don't want their government to shut. Now, what's amazing to me about the position that we're now in, which is really different, Schumer has basically taken the position that he is willing to shut the government, which is unpopular, in order to increase spending, which is unpopular. And that's sort of a double negative you don't get very often.
DETROW: Well, isn't the flip side of that, though, subsidies for health care? Like, making health care more affordable is, by and large, bipartisan...
GINGRICH: Well, sure. They...
DETROW: ...Popular, right?
GINGRICH: Yeah. That would be, except you have John Thune saying oh, we agree, and there are plenty of time between now and December to do it. We're just not going to do it while you hold the government hostage. So I think the Republicans have pretty successfully cluttered the argument. I mean, there's a new survey that just came out that shows that the Republicans now have a six-point advantage, 47-41 on the generic ballot. And Gallup came out the other day and said that the Democrats favorability is now the lowest it has been since they've been taking that poll, which is 34%. So...
DETROW: Well, can I ask about that?
GINGRICH: Yeah. Yeah.
DETROW: Because when you look into those polls, a lot of the reasons that Democrats are sagging in popularity is because their base is frustrated to them. You know what happens when your base gets mad at you, right? That's a constant problem...
GINGRICH: Yeah.
DETROW: ...For Republicans in Congress over the years. What would you do if you were a Democratic leader and you're being pressured to pressure the Trump administration with truly the only point of leverage that you have right now?
GINGRICH: Well, look, I managed to help lead, when I was the speaker, two shutdowns, and they were successful. I mean, the news media said we'd suffered terrible losses, but in fact, we became the first reelected majority of Republicans since 1928 because people thought we were doing the right thing. But here's the difference. If you shut the government down for something people really want, then they'll say, yes, I'm glad you have the guts to do it. The Democrat problem is they're going to yell, health care. And the Republicans are going to say, terrific. We're for doing it in November, but not in this bill.
DETROW: But...
GINGRICH: So it's not like the Republicans are going to jump up and down and say, no, we want to make sure people don't get any - don't get their - and basically this is a fight over...
DETROW: Sure.
GINGRICH: ...The Obamacare subsidy.
DETROW: As partisan, though, as the things were in the first Trump administration, by and large, the Trump White House did negotiate with Senate Democrats on spending bills. It seems like that has been a nonstarter this time around. Democrats are arguing, we are not welcome at the table at any other point except this moment. Is that a point that they have?
GINGRICH: Yeah, look, historically, sure. Does it work politically? No.
DETROW: Yeah.
GINGRICH: I mean, nobody in most of America sits around and worries about the maneuvers of politicians. And it's just, you know, life's too short, and there are too many things to worry about.
DETROW: (Laughter).
GINGRICH: So you've got to find a thematic. This is the great lesson from Reagan and from Lincoln and, frankly, from Trump. You have to find a thematic that resonates where people look up and say, yeah, that really matters.
DETROW: Well...
GINGRICH: And frankly, if the Republicans, who have become significantly less dumb than they were for a while - if the Republicans stick to, yes, we're willing to try to solve that but not in this bill and this is a clean bill, and you are closing the government, I think they have probably a pretty powerful winning position.
DETROW: When it comes to things that cut through and don't cut through, you know, the same pattern often plays itself out where the White House is not blamed, and it's the minority party in Congress that is blamed. At the same time, though, you have President Trump threatening mass firings - not furloughs, firings - of possibly thousands of federal employees. Do you see any political risk to that?
GINGRICH: Well, I think they picked up on the Rahm Emanuel theory that you should never let a crisis go to waste.
DETROW: And that these are...
GINGRICH: And I think...
DETROW: ...Furloughs they would want...
GINGRICH: ...This...
DETROW: ...To make anyway, firings they would want to make anyway.
GINGRICH: Sure. Look, I think what you have here, that people have not really dug into enough, is that when Trump was forced into the wilderness for four years, the entire team at America First Policy Institute was about 400 experienced people from the Trump administration. And they had four years to sit down and think through, what is it we have to do to really dramatically change the system? And I think that - and Russ Vought, who's now the head of OMB, Office of Management and Budget, I think thought this through. They all knew a government shutdown was possible. They had been talking about it for four years. This is not a surprise to them. And I think they had decided early on that you're only going to get the scale of change they want if you're very tough and very determined and every chance you get, you take the opportunity.
DETROW: Taking a step back, you have direct experience with this, but you've also written and studied history. This has now become the norm since the mid-1990s. Every few years, there's a possible or a government shutdown. The government lists are long on short-term funding.
GINGRICH: Yep.
DETROW: Do you see long-term damage to that?
GINGRICH: Yeah. Look, I don't think it's a good idea. I think it's particularly destructive in the Defense Department, where you just stretch out things that make them dramatically harder to get done. But it's really a symptom of a deeper problem, which is that - and this is why we founded America's New Majority Project. We are currently or have been - I think it's breaking loose now. We have been, for a very long time, in a deeply divided nation in which the balance of power is so narrow that each side thinks that it has to screw up the other side. And if you think historically, that's not abnormal. It happens, you know, when you're going through this scale of change.
One side or the other, has to win by a big enough margin to have real control. And, of course, the Senate is the real crux of that because the Senate requires 60 votes, not 51. And so you either have to have a huge majority or you have to pick issues so popular that the other side can't vote against you. When we did, for example, welfare reform, we literally split the Democrats 93 to 93, because half of them couldn't go home and explain why they were going to vote no.
DETROW: Yeah. That is former house speaker Newt Gingrich, giving us his insights on this possible government shutdown. Thank you so much for talking to us.
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