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Trump is choosing to campaign in blue states. Will the risk pay off?

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making a final push to get supporters out to vote. Both candidates are crisscrossing the country with stops in the seven key swing states that will decide Tuesday's election. But in crunch time, Trump is taking a big risk, visiting states like Virginia and New Mexico that are unlikely to swing the race. NPR's Franco Ordoñez is on the campaign trail with Trump and joins us now from Charlotte, North Carolina. Good morning.

FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Good morning, Ayesha.

RASCOE: So, Franco, a candidate's most valuable commodity is time. And in the final month of the campaign, Trump has gone to New Mexico, Virginia, New York, California. That is not your typical swing state schedule. Like, so what's the thinking here?

ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I'd break it down into two strategies. On the one hand, Trump campaign tells me it's a sign of confidence and that they have a bigger coalition that they're getting credit for. They say it's part of their plan to expand the map, that they would not visit New Mexico and Virginia if they didn't actually think they could win. And they also considered visiting New Hampshire but told me they just didn't have the time. Here's Trump speaking about it in Salem, Virginia, yesterday.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

DONALD TRUMP: I'm here today this incredible commonwealth for one very simple reason because I believe we can win Virginia, and that would be unbelievable.

(CHEERING)

RASCOE: OK, so confidence is one theory. What's the other?

ORDOÑEZ: The other is that they're hunting for good TV. I mean, this absolutely flies in the face of tradition, which is to camp out in the swing states the last few days. It's not like Trump has any of the swing states in the bag. And polls show he is behind Harris in New Mexico and Virginia by more than five points. That's a lot. Plus, no Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since 2004.

That said, there is also a fatigue factor. Trump has been visiting these states for over a year. Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research - and he says it's a good idea. There are only so many venues that you can go to and generate the same kind of excitement.

JON MCHENRY: In the beginning of this cycle, people were traveling hours to go see former President Trump. At this point, those people have seen him once, twice, three times.

ORDOÑEZ: He says making another stop may just not be as productive as just having a fresh crowd.

RASCOE: Franco, you were in Salem for that Virginia event. So you tell me, was the crowd any larger, more excited?

ORDOÑEZ: I mean, it was a big crowd. It was a very energetic crowd. I mean, I've been to a lot of rallies, and I can tell you that his crowds are getting smaller. People are leaving. I mean, his rally outside Detroit was smaller. His rally in Atlanta earlier was smaller. And at this point, the question boils down to, where can he get better TV energy? - which is where most people are gonna be watching him anyway.

RASCOE: And speaking of swing states, you're in North Carolina, my home state. Trump had two rallies there yesterday, one today, another tomorrow. Why is he spending so much time there?

ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. North Carolina really wasn't supposed to be a swing state. Trump won, again, you know, the last two times, four years ago and 2016. It was not supposed to be competitive. I mean, I will note that Harris is spending more time in North Carolina as well, which shows that she sees an opportunity. Still, Trump's repeated visits, four in just the last few days, are a sign that he feels some vulnerability there, and he needs to be there to make the difference and get North Carolina in his pocket.

RASCOE: That's NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez. Thank you so much, Franco.

ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Ayesha.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Franco Ordoñez is a White House Correspondent for NPR's Washington Desk. Before he came to NPR in 2019, Ordoñez covered the White House for McClatchy. He has also written about diplomatic affairs, foreign policy and immigration, and has been a correspondent in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and Haiti.
Ayesha Rascoe is a White House correspondent for NPR. She is currently covering her third presidential administration. Rascoe's White House coverage has included a number of high profile foreign trips, including President Trump's 2019 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, and President Obama's final NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland in 2016. As a part of the White House team, she's also a regular on the NPR Politics Podcast.